FAQ

Short answers to the questions that come up most. Each links to the page that explains it properly.

I was right — why is my score tiny, or even negative?

Because being right isn't the same as forecasting well. Your call is scored against a skill-free baseline that already knows the asset's own drift — so an obvious correct call earns little, and a call you made at less confidence than the baseline can score slightly negative even when it lands. See Why being right isn't enough.

The price moved my way — why didn't I score at all?

The move was probably inside the dead-band: a zone of "didn't really move," scaled to the asset's own volatility. A move within the noise is a void — it counts for nothing either way, which protects you from being marked wrong by a meaningless wiggle too. See How a prediction resolves.

Can I delete or edit a bad call?

No — and neither can we. Predictions are sealed and append-only; there is no edit button and no delete path. That permanence is the point: a record only means something because the misses are as permanent as the hits. You wouldn't trust anyone else's track record if they could delete their misses either.

Does paying improve my rank?

Never. A paid tier can buy convenience — higher publish limits — but it cannot buy a scoring edge, a leaderboard position, or the identity badge. Equal skill reaches equal rank, whether you pay or not. Rank is earned, only earned.

Why can't I predict stocks yet?

Because v1 is crypto-only, on purpose: a reputation is only as good as the resolution behind it, and we'd rather score one asset class rigorously than several sloppily. Other topics are coming soon, each with its own named, sealed price source. See What you can predict on.

Why did my co-signature get today's date, not the original's?

Because a co-sign is your stake, made now. It carries your timestamp — never the earlier author's — so nobody inherits a head start by endorsing an old call, and it's scored on your record like any prediction. See the co-signing section of What makes a prediction.

What's the difference between accuracy and skill?

Accuracy is the friendly hit-rate — how often you were right. Skill is how often you were right about something the market didn't already expect, and it's the only one the leaderboard ranks on. See Reading your reputation.

Is a target-price call scored with a bonus?

No — there is no bonus multiplier. A precise target is simply scored against a harder baseline (the odds of reaching that exact level, not just moving in a direction), so nailing it naturally earns more skill. It also can never void. See Directional vs target-price.

Why only five fixed time frames?

So forecasters are comparable — the leaderboard can ask focused questions like "who's best at one-year calls?" — and so nobody spams dozens of horizons on one asset hunting for a lucky one. See What makes a prediction.

What happens to my proof if aiternam shuts down?

Nothing — if you downloaded your proof bundle. It's self-contained: the raw prediction, its Merkle inclusion proof, and the Bitcoin .ots. Anyone can re-verify it with no involvement from us, forever. See Verify it yourself.

What can't the proof show me?

We keep an honest, ranked list of the limits — the residual window before anchoring, block-level (not second-level) granularity, backfilled dates, and more — in The honest limits.