Glossary
aiternam is a jargon-dense product by necessity. Here is every term in one sentence, with a link to the page that explains it properly. When something on the site reads like a bug or a scam, it's usually a word from this list you haven't met yet.
The prediction
| Term | In one sentence |
|---|---|
| Prediction | A small, precise, falsifiable statement about an asset, sealed in time so it can be scored fairly later. |
| Directional call | A prediction that the asset moves up or down beyond the noise, without naming a level (details). |
| Target-price call | A prediction that the asset reaches a specific level — a sharper claim that can never void (details). |
| Confidence | Your stated probability, from 50% to 99%, that the call is right — a stake that scales both reward and penalty (details). |
| Time frame (horizon) | One of five fixed lengths (1 week to 1 year) over which the call plays out; fixed so forecasters are comparable (details). |
| Entry price (baseline) | The asset's spot price captured and sealed at publish time — the level your call is measured from. |
| Co-sign | Adopting someone else's open call as your own, with your timestamp and confidence, scored on your own record (details). |
Scoring & reputation
| Term | In one sentence |
|---|---|
| Drift-aware baseline (the null) | The probability a skill-free "robot" — knowing only the asset's own drift and volatility — assigns to your side; what you must beat (details). |
| Skill score | How much a resolved call beat (or fell short of) that baseline — positive means you out-forecast the robot (details). |
| Calibration | Whether your confidences mean what they say — of the calls you tagged ~70%, do about 70% come true? (details). |
| Dead-band | The zone of "didn't really move" around the entry price — scaled to the asset's volatility — inside which a directional call voids. |
| Void | A resolved-but-uncounted prediction: the move was within the noise, so it scores nothing either way (details). |
| Resolution | The automatic, objective scoring of a call at its time frame, read from the sealed price source (details). |
| Career reputation | Your whole history of resolved calls, with no seasons or resets — the append-only record is the career (details). |
| Recency decay | Older results gradually fade (a long, ~2-year half-life) so the ranking reflects who's good now, without discarding proven history (details). |
| Conservative rank | The leaderboard ranks a lower bound of your skill, so a thin lucky record ranks below a long proven one — volume can prove skill, never fake it (details). |
| Provisional | A caution label (not a penalty) on forecasters who haven't yet resolved enough calls to tell skill from luck (details). |
Trust & proof
| Term | In one sentence |
|---|---|
| Seal | The instant of publishing, when a prediction becomes immutable — the fingerprint and timestamp captured in our records (details). |
content_hash | The 64-character SHA-256 fingerprint over everything you committed; any later change would break it (details). |
| Canonicalisation | The frozen rule that turns a prediction into the exact bytes we hash, so anyone in any language recomputes the same fingerprint (details). |
| Anchor | Committing a batch's fingerprint to Bitcoin, so the proof no longer depends on trusting aiternam (details). |
| Merkle root | The single value that folds a whole batch of fingerprints into one — the thing actually committed to Bitcoin (details). |
| Inclusion proof | The handful of neighboring hashes that prove your prediction is in a batch's root, without revealing the others (details). |
OpenTimestamps / .ots | The public, wallet-free timestamping service that commits our root into Bitcoin; the .ots file is the resulting proof (details). |
| Anchor status | Where a prediction stands on the trust ladder: unanchored → pending → bitcoin (details). |
| Proof bundle | The self-contained JSON you can download to re-verify a prediction yourself, with zero trust in aiternam (details). |
Account
| Term | In one sentence |
|---|---|
| Verified badge | A mark that an account's identity was checked — it tracks identity only, and can never be purchased. |
| Tier | A billing level that buys convenience (higher publish limits), never a scoring edge or a place on the leaderboard. |
Start anywhere: What is aiternam · How reputation works · Verify it yourself.